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New England’s solar capacity forecasted to double over the next 10 years

New England’s solar capacity forecasted to double over the next 10 years
(Image by Maria Godfrida from Pixabay)

New England’s solar power capacity is expected to nearly double in the next 10 years, according to forecasts from New England’s independent system operator, ISO New England.

Growth projections for distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are part of ISO New England’s 2024-2033 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT Report) a planning document that aims to size up the region’s energy landscape for the next decade.

This year’s PV forecast uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenT) model to make predictions about PV installations with nameplate capacity less than 1 megawatt (MW). The model simulates customer adoption of solar technology based on economic and other considerations.

ISO forecasters plan to take advantage of additional dGen capabilities in future reports, ISO New England said. The 2024 CELT continues to use existing methodology, based on state policies, to predict development of distributed PV installations greater than 1 MW.

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Most of New England’s solar power installations connect to local distribution systems operated by utilities, rather than the regionwide transmission system operated by ISO New England. While some of these installations participate in the wholesale electricity markets, most do not. Those who do not participate are known in the ISO’s system planning studies as behind-the-meter (BTM).

Credit: ISO New England

The ISO anticipates distributed PV nameplate capacity to grow from 7,345 MW in 2024 to 13,466 MW in 2033. This growth includes a doubling in BTM PV capacity, from roughly 4,000 MW to 8,000 MW.

Output from BTM PV is expected to be 5,444 GWh in 2024. Without BTM PV, the region’s projected energy use for the year would be almost 5% higher, at 119,179 GWh. Meanwhile, BTM PV is expected to reduce this summer’s system peak electricity demand by about 4%, to 24,553 MW.

In 2033, the final year of the forecast, BTM PV is expected to reduce summer peak demand by a similar percentage, to 27,052 MW. That year’s projected energy use, 140,000 GWh, would be about 7% higher without BTM PV.

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